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The US 2016 Election Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="SueEllenRules!" data-source="post: 19400" data-attributes="member: 87"><p><span style="font-size: 22px"><strong>Poll: Comey’s bombshell changes few votes</strong></span></p><p><strong><em>The race for the White House is tight, but it has not been radically changed by the FBI director's bombshell announcement last week.</em></strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Hillary Clinton has a slim three-point lead over Donald Trump one week before Election Day, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted entirely after FBI Director James Comey announced the discovery of new emails that might pertain to the former secretary of state's private server.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Clinton leads Trump 46 percent to 43 percent in a two-way race, and 42 percent to 39 percent in a four-way race, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 5 percent.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The poll was conducted using an online panel of 1,772 likely voters on Saturday and Sunday, beginning one day after Comey's announcement. The poll carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">In a separate poll conducted before Comey's disclosure, Clinton was leading by three points in the four-way race, and five points in the two-way race. Put simply, there is not yet evidence that the revelations have drastically altered the contours of the election.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Thirty-nine percent of voters said the additional review of emails in the Clinton case had no bearing on their vote in November, while 33 percent said it made them much less likely to vote for Clinton.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">But most of those voters are already aligned against Clinton. Nearly two-thirds of Trump voters, 66 percent, said it makes them much more likely to vote against Clinton.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Among the small pocket of undecided voters remaining, 42 percent said it made them less likely to vote for Clinton, including 30 percent who said it made them much less likely to vote for her. But just as many, 41 percent, said it makes no difference either way.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">"It is unlikely that there will be a dramatic shift in the polls before Election Day," said Morning Consult cofounder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp. "While Friday's news may be considered an 'October Surprise,' it doesn't seem to be moving the needle as of now."</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Comey's vague letter to Congress, however, has shaken up the race for the White House. The FBI has reportedly seized the laptop, cell phone and iPad belonging to former Rep. Anthony Weiner, Huma Abedin's estranged husband who has been accused of trading lewd text messages with a 15-year-old girl.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Trump, who had already been gaining in the polls, has positioned the FBI's fresh involvement in the matter as a boon to his campaign. Clinton, meanwhile, has called on Comey to release all emails that were found. The Wall Street Journal Sunday reported the FBI needs to scour 650,000 emails found on Weiner's devices. As of Sunday night, it now has a warrant to do so. In the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, Weiner has an 8 percent approval rating, lower than Russia.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Although Comey's announcement was just days ago, there's widespread awareness of what he did. Eighty-nine percent of respondents said they heard a lot or some about it.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Forty-five percent of voters say they agree with Trump’s claim that Clinton's email scandal is worse than Watergate. And asked to compare the two scandals, voters view Clinton's email issues and Trump's sexually aggressive comments about women as equally bad.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The race for Congress appears to be very tight. When voters were asked if they would vote for a Republican or Democrat for Congress, 44 percent said they'd vote for the Democrat and 43 percent said they would vote for the Republican -- a big gain for the GOP.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">There's at least one overwhelming emotion about the election: Most everyone wishes it was over. Seventy-one percent of respondents said they strongly agree that they wish the election were finished already.</li> </ul><p><em>Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.</em></p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-emails-comey-poll-politico-morning-consult-230519" target="_blank">http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-emails-comey-poll-politico-morning-consult-230519</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="SueEllenRules!, post: 19400, member: 87"] [SIZE=6][B]Poll: Comey’s bombshell changes few votes[/B][/SIZE] [B][I]The race for the White House is tight, but it has not been radically changed by the FBI director's bombshell announcement last week.[/I][/B] [LIST] [*]Hillary Clinton has a slim three-point lead over Donald Trump one week before Election Day, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted entirely after FBI Director James Comey announced the discovery of new emails that might pertain to the former secretary of state's private server. [*]Clinton leads Trump 46 percent to 43 percent in a two-way race, and 42 percent to 39 percent in a four-way race, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 5 percent. [*]The poll was conducted using an online panel of 1,772 likely voters on Saturday and Sunday, beginning one day after Comey's announcement. The poll carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points. [*]In a separate poll conducted before Comey's disclosure, Clinton was leading by three points in the four-way race, and five points in the two-way race. Put simply, there is not yet evidence that the revelations have drastically altered the contours of the election. [*]Thirty-nine percent of voters said the additional review of emails in the Clinton case had no bearing on their vote in November, while 33 percent said it made them much less likely to vote for Clinton. [*]But most of those voters are already aligned against Clinton. Nearly two-thirds of Trump voters, 66 percent, said it makes them much more likely to vote against Clinton. [*]Among the small pocket of undecided voters remaining, 42 percent said it made them less likely to vote for Clinton, including 30 percent who said it made them much less likely to vote for her. But just as many, 41 percent, said it makes no difference either way. [*]"It is unlikely that there will be a dramatic shift in the polls before Election Day," said Morning Consult cofounder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp. "While Friday's news may be considered an 'October Surprise,' it doesn't seem to be moving the needle as of now." [*]Comey's vague letter to Congress, however, has shaken up the race for the White House. The FBI has reportedly seized the laptop, cell phone and iPad belonging to former Rep. Anthony Weiner, Huma Abedin's estranged husband who has been accused of trading lewd text messages with a 15-year-old girl. [*]Trump, who had already been gaining in the polls, has positioned the FBI's fresh involvement in the matter as a boon to his campaign. Clinton, meanwhile, has called on Comey to release all emails that were found. The Wall Street Journal Sunday reported the FBI needs to scour 650,000 emails found on Weiner's devices. As of Sunday night, it now has a warrant to do so. In the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, Weiner has an 8 percent approval rating, lower than Russia. [*]Although Comey's announcement was just days ago, there's widespread awareness of what he did. Eighty-nine percent of respondents said they heard a lot or some about it. [*]Forty-five percent of voters say they agree with Trump’s claim that Clinton's email scandal is worse than Watergate. And asked to compare the two scandals, voters view Clinton's email issues and Trump's sexually aggressive comments about women as equally bad. [*]The race for Congress appears to be very tight. When voters were asked if they would vote for a Republican or Democrat for Congress, 44 percent said they'd vote for the Democrat and 43 percent said they would vote for the Republican -- a big gain for the GOP. [*]There's at least one overwhelming emotion about the election: Most everyone wishes it was over. Seventy-one percent of respondents said they strongly agree that they wish the election were finished already. [/LIST] [I]Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.[/I] [URL]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-emails-comey-poll-politico-morning-consult-230519[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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