Democrats Need to
Win 28 Seats to Control
the Senate. Republicans
Need Only 9.
This election year, the political climate favors Democrats. President Trump is historically unpopular, and “generic ballot” polls, which are good predictors of the House popular vote, show that more voters would currently choose a Democrat over a Republican in their congressional districts.
But in the Senate, Democrats and the independents who caucus with them have significantly more seats to defend: 26 compared with nine held by Republicans. For Democrats to take control of the chamber, they must keep all of their seats and win two of the Republican seats in play. It is numerically possible, but there is little room for error.
There are 35 seats up for election — 26 held by Democrats and just nine held by Republicans.
The races vary in competitiveness.
Three Republicans will not be running again, leaving their seats open. A fourth, Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.), will run in a special election. Ms. Hyde-Smith has been appointed to fill the seat of Senator Thad Cochran when he steps down in April.
In the strongest Trump states, the seats of Democrats Joe Manchin III (W.Va.) and Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) are both at risk. Ms. Heitkamp’s race became more competitive when Representative Kevin Cramer, the at-large congressman representing the state, entered the race.
Five Republicans and three relatively moderate Democrats hold seats in the next batch of Trump states.
One of the Republican seats, held by the retiring Bob Corker (Tenn.), was initially a long shot for Democrats but moved into reach when a former successful Democratic governor entered the race.
Joe Donnelly (Ind.) and Claire McCaskill (Mo.) are Democrats who represent states that have become more conservative in recent years. They could both face formidable Republican opponents.
Jon Tester (Mont.) is more likely to be re-elected, primarily because Republicans may not have a candidate strong enough to defeat him.
There are two Republican seats in states that Trump won fairly narrowly. Ted Cruz (Tex.) has a strong Democratic opponent in Representative Beto O’Rourke, but it would be an uphill battle to turn the Texas seat blue.
The race for the seat of departing Jeff Flake (Ariz.) is much more competitive and could hinge on how conservative the Republican nominee is. A more moderate pick may fare better against Democratic Representative Kyrsten Sinema in the general election.
There are five more Democrats running in states won — albeit narrowly — by Mr. Trump.
Bill Nelson (Fla.) is rated the most vulnerable of the group, and ratings will most likely move to a tossup if Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican who is considering a run, enters the race.
Republican groups will almost certainly target the other four Democrats. Tammy Baldwin (Wis.), the most liberal senator from a purple state, had the lowest approval rating of the group at the start of this year.
The rest of the senators are from states won by Hillary Clinton. Dean Heller (Nev.), the only Republican in this group, is expected to face Representative Jacky Rosen, a freshman Democratic congresswoman. It’s hard to see a path to a Democratic majority if Mr. Heller wins this seat.
There are five Democrats that represent states that Mrs. Clinton won more narrowly.
The biggest question mark of the group is Tina Smith (Minn.), who was appointed in January to replace Senator Al Franken. Her odds depend on the ability of Republicans to field a strong challenger.
Angus King (Me.), an independent who has caucused with the Democrats since he joined the Senate in 2013, is likely to keep his seat. None of the candidates who entered by the state’s filing deadline pose a serious threat.
In states where Mrs. Clinton won more easily, the fate of Robert Menendez (N.J.) is the most uncertain. He was recently tried for corruption (the trial ended in a hung jury) and is vulnerable to a primary challenge. But his seat is likely to remain blue whether or not he remains.
The remaining 10 seats will almost certainly remain in the Democratic column. That includes the seat of Bernie Sanders (Vt.), an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
Here is the full calendar of Senate
and House elections coming this year.
Sources: Race ratings are an average of ratings by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections With Nathan L. Gonzales and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. Election results are from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Ideology measurements are based on DW-NOMINATE scores, which are based on congressional votes. The average Republican score is used for Cindy Hyde-Smith, because she does not yet have a score.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/07/us/politics/senate-midterm-elections.html
Win 28 Seats to Control
the Senate. Republicans
Need Only 9.
This election year, the political climate favors Democrats. President Trump is historically unpopular, and “generic ballot” polls, which are good predictors of the House popular vote, show that more voters would currently choose a Democrat over a Republican in their congressional districts.
But in the Senate, Democrats and the independents who caucus with them have significantly more seats to defend: 26 compared with nine held by Republicans. For Democrats to take control of the chamber, they must keep all of their seats and win two of the Republican seats in play. It is numerically possible, but there is little room for error.
There are 35 seats up for election — 26 held by Democrats and just nine held by Republicans.
The races vary in competitiveness.
Three Republicans will not be running again, leaving their seats open. A fourth, Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.), will run in a special election. Ms. Hyde-Smith has been appointed to fill the seat of Senator Thad Cochran when he steps down in April.
In the strongest Trump states, the seats of Democrats Joe Manchin III (W.Va.) and Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) are both at risk. Ms. Heitkamp’s race became more competitive when Representative Kevin Cramer, the at-large congressman representing the state, entered the race.
Five Republicans and three relatively moderate Democrats hold seats in the next batch of Trump states.
One of the Republican seats, held by the retiring Bob Corker (Tenn.), was initially a long shot for Democrats but moved into reach when a former successful Democratic governor entered the race.
Joe Donnelly (Ind.) and Claire McCaskill (Mo.) are Democrats who represent states that have become more conservative in recent years. They could both face formidable Republican opponents.
Jon Tester (Mont.) is more likely to be re-elected, primarily because Republicans may not have a candidate strong enough to defeat him.
There are two Republican seats in states that Trump won fairly narrowly. Ted Cruz (Tex.) has a strong Democratic opponent in Representative Beto O’Rourke, but it would be an uphill battle to turn the Texas seat blue.
The race for the seat of departing Jeff Flake (Ariz.) is much more competitive and could hinge on how conservative the Republican nominee is. A more moderate pick may fare better against Democratic Representative Kyrsten Sinema in the general election.
There are five more Democrats running in states won — albeit narrowly — by Mr. Trump.
Bill Nelson (Fla.) is rated the most vulnerable of the group, and ratings will most likely move to a tossup if Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican who is considering a run, enters the race.
Republican groups will almost certainly target the other four Democrats. Tammy Baldwin (Wis.), the most liberal senator from a purple state, had the lowest approval rating of the group at the start of this year.
The rest of the senators are from states won by Hillary Clinton. Dean Heller (Nev.), the only Republican in this group, is expected to face Representative Jacky Rosen, a freshman Democratic congresswoman. It’s hard to see a path to a Democratic majority if Mr. Heller wins this seat.
There are five Democrats that represent states that Mrs. Clinton won more narrowly.
The biggest question mark of the group is Tina Smith (Minn.), who was appointed in January to replace Senator Al Franken. Her odds depend on the ability of Republicans to field a strong challenger.
Angus King (Me.), an independent who has caucused with the Democrats since he joined the Senate in 2013, is likely to keep his seat. None of the candidates who entered by the state’s filing deadline pose a serious threat.
In states where Mrs. Clinton won more easily, the fate of Robert Menendez (N.J.) is the most uncertain. He was recently tried for corruption (the trial ended in a hung jury) and is vulnerable to a primary challenge. But his seat is likely to remain blue whether or not he remains.
The remaining 10 seats will almost certainly remain in the Democratic column. That includes the seat of Bernie Sanders (Vt.), an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
Here is the full calendar of Senate
and House elections coming this year.
Sources: Race ratings are an average of ratings by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections With Nathan L. Gonzales and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. Election results are from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Ideology measurements are based on DW-NOMINATE scores, which are based on congressional votes. The average Republican score is used for Cindy Hyde-Smith, because she does not yet have a score.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/07/us/politics/senate-midterm-elections.html
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