Will Brexit Mean The End of The United Kingdom?

[Angela Channing]

A new YouGov survey on Scottish independence published today has Yes in the lead for the first time since 2015, by 51% to 49%.

One reason for this shift is that Remainers are increasingly moving towards Yes. Over one in five (21%) of those who voted Remain in 2016 but No in the independence referendum have now shifted over to Yes.

Also, at the last general election for the first time more people in Northern Ireland voted for republican parties than voted for unionist ones. The government's Brexit deal already leaves Northern Ireland closer to the Republic economically than it does with mainland Britain and there will be customs checks between northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

We were warned that voting to leave would risk breaking up the United Kingdom and that is now looking increasingly inevitable.

Well done everyone for voting for this mess!

 

[Michael Torrance]

I think Scotland (particularly the SNP) will try to make a lot of hay, but in the end, even if there were a referendum, the result would be the same. Yes, leaving the EU is horrible, but leaving the UK will be like thinking two wrongs make a right.

I think the situation is very different for Northern Ireland, which has been marginalized and ignored completely by London long-term, unlike Scotland which has been given extensive powers through the devolution. If there can be some way for sectarian differences to be bridged, some sort of federation in Switzerland style could allow the two parts of the island to come together. It makes a lot of financial and administrative sense.

But who knows what things will be like in 10 years, once the UK is in a really different situation and not the current "out but not yet really" one. Maybe Britons adapt to it and are actually happy in the new status quo, or maybe they come running back to the EU over the mess the country has become.

 

[Angela Channing]

I think Scotland (particularly the SNP) will try to make a lot of hay, but in the end, even if there were a referendum, the result would be the same. Yes, leaving the EU is horrible, but leaving the UK will be like thinking two wrongs make a right.

I take another view. The case for Scottish independence has been strengthened by Brexit because Scotland voted to remain in the EU but they are being forced to leave because of votes cast from outside of the country. For many Scottish people that will feel like their views are being ignored in favour of those of people in England and their democracy can only be restored by independence. Also, young Scots are the demographic who are most strongly in favour of remaining in the EU and for Scottish independence whereas older people are most likely to take the opposite view. As old people die and more young people reach voting age the numbers in favour of independence will grow. The UK government will resist allowing a second independence referendum because they know they will lose it but pressure will build for one to the point where the UK government will have to relent.

I think the situation is very different for Northern Ireland, which has been marginalized and ignored completely by London long-term, unlike Scotland which has been given extensive powers through the devolution. If there can be some way for sectarian differences to be bridged, some sort of federation in Switzerland style could allow the two parts of the island to come together. It makes a lot of financial and administrative sense.

The appalling Tory Brexit deal has left Northern Ireland closer to the Republic than to the UK so if the people of Northern Ireland were given a vote to join the Republic it won't feel like as big a wrench to leave as it might otherwise have done. Again, Brexit has made independence here more likely.

I also think there will be a domino effect. Once one country votes for independence, pressure will build in the others to do the same. However I look at it, Brexit brings the end of the UK as a union of 4 countries more likely.

 

[Angela Channing]

I'm from London and we voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU but we are being taken out against our will. We also voted overwhelmingly to kick out Boris Johnson at the last general election but we are being lumbered with a government we didn't want. I totally get why so many Scottish voters feel alienated by our democracy and want to be independent from it. If there was a referendum for London to become an independent state, I would vote for independence.